Predictions are Like Arseholes. Everybody Has Got One

 

Aaron Bower has managed to get two articles in The Guardian on the eve of the start of Super League XXX nod to the Super Bowl). Super League returns and, 30 years on, it’s going back to the future | Super League | The Guardian and Super League 2026: team-by-team guide to the new season | Super League | The Guardian. I am a fan of Aaron, especially when he gets a few column inches in a daily newspaper. Below is his prediction for the Leigh Leopards:

Leigh Leopards

Had it not been for Hull KR’s treble, Leigh would have been the story of 2025. A Championship club as recently as 2022, the Leopards secured their highest finish last season, falling just short of a maiden Grand Final. They should make the top six again, but their squad looks slightly light in a couple of key areas. Injuries could leave them in trouble.

Coach Adrian Lam Captain Lachlan Lam Key player Lachlan Lam Last season 3rd Prediction 6th

Leigh, having finished 5th, 4th and 3rd and ranked the 3rd best in the competition by IMG ratings over the the 3 year period, is going to go into reverse and finish in the last slot in the play-offs. Funnily enough Aaron Bower in Love Rugby League on the 10th February - Super League predictions: Our writers tip Leeds Rhinos for title predicted that Leigh would drop out of the play-off race and finish 7th. Aaron either does not keep a tab on his own predictions, or he has changed his mind in the last 2 days. Aaron's big argument is: "They should make the top six again, but their squad looks slightly light in a couple of key areas. Injuries could leave them in trouble." The reality is Leigh has suffered injuries to key players over the last 2 seasons and still managed to find themselves in the top 4. In my opinion, the depth of the squad is much greater than that of some of their nearest rivals. Wigan, Warrington and Leeds have filled the high numbers in their squads with academy players. Leigh, on the other hand, has Super League experience down to 26. Nathan Wilde has 12 games under his belt.

Aaron Bower – Love Rugby League
1. Hull KR
2. Leeds Rhinos
3. Wigan Warriors
4. St Helens
5. Hull FC
6. Wakefield Trinity
7. Leigh Leopards
8. Catalans Dragons
9. Castleford Tigers
10. Warrington Wolves
11. Huddersfield Giants
12. York Knights
13. Toulouse Olympique
14. Bradford Bulls

Aaron Bower – Guardian
1. Hull KR
2. Leeds Rhinos
3. Wigan Warriors
4. St Helens
5. Hull FC
6. Leigh Leopards
7. Wakefield Trinity
8. Catalans Dragons
9. Castleford Tigers
10. Warrington Wolves
11. Huddersfield Giants
12. York Knights
13. Toulouse Olympique
14. Bradford Bulls

Matt Shaw – Love Rugby League
1. Leigh Leopards
2. Leeds Rhinos
3. Hull KR
4. Wigan Warriors
5. Hull FC
6. Wakefield Trinity
7. St Helens
8. Warrington Wolves
9. Catalans Dragons
10. Huddersfield Giants
11. Castleford Tigers
12. Toulouse Olympique
13. Bradford Bulls
14. York Knights

Ben Olawumi – Love Rugby League
1. Wigan Warriors
2. Leeds Rhinos
3. Hull KR
4. St Helens
5. Hull FC
6. Leigh Leopards
7. Warrington Wolves
8. Wakefield Trinity
9. Catalans Dragons
10. Castleford Tigers
11. Bradford Bulls
12. Toulouse Olympique
13. York Knights
14. Huddersfield Giants

Louis Chapman-Coombe – Love Rugby League
1. Hull KR
2. Leeds Rhinos
3. Wigan Warriors
4. St Helens
5. Wakefield Trinity
6. Leigh Leopards
7. Hull FC
8. Warrington Wolves
9. Catalans Dragons
10. Castleford Tigers
11. Huddersfield Giants
12. York Knights
13. Bradford Bulls
14. Toulouse Olympique

Will Jackson – SARL
1. Wigan Warriors
2. Hull KR
3. St Helens
4. Leeds Rhinos
5. Hull FC
6. Leigh Leopards
7. Warrington Wolves
8. Wakefield Trinity
9. Huddersfield Giants
10. Catalans Dragons
11. Castleford Tigers
12. York Knights
13. Bradford Bulls
14. Toulouse Olympique

Sam Brocksam - SARL
1. Wigan Warriors
2. ⁠Leigh Leopards
3. ⁠Hull KR
4. ⁠Leeds Rhinos
5. ⁠St Helens
6. ⁠Catalans Dragons
7. ⁠Hull FC
8. ⁠Warrington Wolves
9. ⁠Wakefield Trinity
10. ⁠Castleford Tigers
11. ⁠York Knights
12. ⁠Huddersfield Giants
13. ⁠Toulouse Olympique
14. ⁠Bradford Bulls

Sam Cook – SARL
1: Leigh Leopards
2: Wigan Warriors
3: Hull KR
4: St Helens
5: Hull FC
6: Leeds Rhinos
7: Warrington Wolves
8: Catalans Dragons
9: Wakefield Trinity
10: Huddersfield Giants
11: Castleford Tigers:
12: York Knights
13: Toulouse Olympique
14: Bradford Bulls

All Out Rugby League chickened out of full predictions.

Crazy News Day

 

Rebuild for 2027

When Leigh builds a good team, the foundations invariably get removed from underneath them. 2024 witnessed the disbanding of the Challenge Cup-winning team, with the departures of Asiata, Amone and O'Donnell. 2026 will see the pack decimated by Mulhern and Trout leaving for new adventures. Owen Trout electing to move to the Cronula Sharks is a bit easier to understand than Robbie Mulhern choosing to go to Castleford. Good luck Owen you deserve your chance in the NRL.

The Leopards, on the other hand, are left trying to find British props in a competitive Super League market. The overseas quota space will need to be filled by a dynamic Prop, ready to come straight into the starting 13. Lammy's focus needs to switch to the remaining players who are out of contract at the end of the season. Umyla Hanley was the success story, but losing Mulhern and Trout makes it imperative that Bailey Hodgson remains at the club. As discussed yesterday, there are questions over Issac Liu Leopards are Massive: Where is Issac Liu?

Leigh Leopards are Underdogs!

Predictions from the pundits and journalist time. With the Super League launch set for kick-off on Thursday, it is compulsory to make predictions about how the upcoming season will pan out. In essence, most people are of the opinion that the top 6 is between 9 different clubs. It is, of course, guesswork and not real analysis as for were the teams will finally settle. The betting odds for the top 4 are as follows:

• 1st Place: Wigan Warriors – 2/1
• 2nd Place: Hull KR – 11/5
• 3rd Place: Leeds Rhinos – 11/2
• 4th Place: St Helens – 7/1

Picking Wigan, Saints and Leeds would appear on any prediction list from the last 30 years. In many ways, it is lazy punditry. Hull KR, of course, must be in the reckoning having managed the incredible feat of attaining the treble. 

In 2022, St Helens won their fourth final in a row, but the team has been in decline since. 2023 saw them finish in 3rd on the same points as Wigan and Catalans. In 2024, they only just managed to squeeze into the play-offs on the same points as Catalans Dragons, who finished 7th. St Helens were 12 points off 2nd place Hull KR. The Saints won only 15 games out of 27, far below the expectations of their fans. 2025 was another disappointing season with a slightly more acceptable 17 wins out of 27 games. A change of coach and a large-scale recruitment (for St Helens), and now everybody expects them to be winners again. Saints have recruited well in Klemmer and Hastings, but have lost the rock of the team with the departure of Morgan Knowles. The team are expected to attack from any position, but in the last few years, the Saints have relied on defence. Changing tack will come with it's own dangers, and somebody is going to have to make up for the 40+ tackles Knowles would make in a game. The biggest issues with St Helens in the last few years are a lack of a cutting edge in attack and the lack of a settled spine. Lomax is still at the club, but he may be an unsettling influence on the team. Alex Walmsley and Mark Percival are likely to be on the wane. Not surprisingly, Percival has been offered to other clubs to keep out of the way. Welsby appears to be the chosen Full-back but last season he was well below his usual high standard. The Ashes highlighted a player struggling mentally and physically. Tristan Sailor is not a winger or a stand-off. His only major skill appears to be blistering pace. He offers very little in defence, and teams will target his channel. Jackson Hastings will be the lightning rod for the team, but after a number of years back in the NRL, he is not the player he once was. There is talent throughout this squad, but there are also weaknesses. They will probably relish piling the points on the bottom 6 teams, but history suggests they now struggle against the top 4 and Warrington. There are just too many question marks against this team to assume that the Saints are back. As a side issue, the new captain Matty Lees is set to missthe first 8 weeks of the season.

Love Rugby League are just typical of lazy punditry - Super League predictions: Our writers tip Leeds Rhinos for title. Leeds Rhinos are another team the pundits love to love. In reality, they have had a rubbish decade so far, and are still grappling with the issues of salary cap and NRL poaching. They have a team to compete with anybody, but the squad appears to have a large number of academy players who are not quite ready to make the step up. Without injuries, they are incredibly dangerous, but if required to delve into the lower squad numbers, they might well struggle.

Aaron Bower has followed a familiar trope and suggests that Leigh Leopards will slip out of the play-offs (hopefully, Aaron wants a Derek Humble Pie). Matt Shaw oddly mirrors my predictions with Leigh to finish top and Wigan to drop out of the top 2. I was not brave enough to make the call that the Grand Finalists of the last two seasons would both finish without home sem-finals.

What is Lammy Talking About?

Love Rugby League Leigh Leopards boss bemoans ruck speed rule changes for 2026 interview with Adrian Lam. I have read the law changes but I have no idea what he is complaining about. 

"It was confirmed ahead of the start of the 2026 campaign that players would now be forbidden from encroaching within ten metres of any opponent that is waiting for the ball. They must also surrender when an opponent gains possession of the ball."

Lying on the ruck is a straightforward issue, and I am happy with how it is officiated in 2026. Not sure how Lammy thinks the game was fast enough last season, or why lying on the floor behind the play the ball is considered to be ok.

Where is Issac Liu?

 

Not a murder mystery, but as usual, Adrian Lam has been quite cryptic. Here is where the confusion arises, Adrian Lam said last week, "Of our 30-man squad, there are 11 unavailable and only 19 available" So far so good. "We’ve only got 19 to choose from for this week; there are ten players out."

From that conversation, we know the 19-man squad that was named for the trip to Colwyn Bay:

1. Bailey Hodgson
2. Innes Senior 
3. Tesi Niu 
4. Keanan Brand
5. Josh Charnley
6. Adam Cook 
7. Lachlan Lam
8. Robbie Mulhern
9. Edwin Ipape
10. Owen Trout
11. Frankie Halton
12. Jacob Alick-Wiencke
13. Jack Hughes
14. Andrew Badrock
15. Ben McNamara 
16. Nathan Wilde
17. Gareth O’Brien
18. AJ Towse
19. Ryan Brown

On top of that, we have the 4 injured against Warrington the week before:

1. Umyal Hanley (Rotator Cuff)
2. Joe Ofahengaue (3 teeth and HIA)
3. Liam Horne (HIA)
4. Matt Davis (Gash on leg with stitches)

Already missing from the friendly against Warrington:

1. Aaron Pene
2. Issac Liu
3. Louis Brogan (Injured)
4. David Armstrong (Injured - ACL)

Status Unknown:

1. Kavan Rothwell
2. Will Brough
3. Oliver Polec

The finger appears to be pointing at Aaron Pene or Issac Liu. The final piece of the jigsaw was the clue on the Leopards website, and the men's team photos.

Everybody has a photo, with the exception of Issac. If Issac has gone back to Australia, Samoa or New Zealand for personal reasons, then what is the big issue? The public have no right to know why, but if a star player is not available we should have some idea in which round to expect him back. Not because we are nosy we just want to see the strongest team available at the start of the season, especially as we face Leeds, St Helens and Wigan as the first 3 games.

Official Leigh Leopards Squad 2026

 

It has been a long wait for Leigh Leopards to issue the squad numbers and away strip. Three weeks ago, I took a stab at the squad Leopards are Massive: Leigh Leopards Squad 2026.

It was not too bad a stab as it turns out, with numbers 1-15 all present and correct. The first divergence is at 16, I predicted the goal-kicking genius Gaz O'Brien would be wearing that shirt instead; it is the utility forward Matt "The Axe" Davis.

It is in fact Jack Hughes and Gaz O'Brien that have been squeezed down the pecking order, coming in at 21 and 22. As veterans Lammy will have no issue utilising this pair, and in some respects shows the depth in the Leigh squad with players all the way down to 25. Louis Brogan having had a reasonable amount of game time. Compare this with Wigan who only have regulars down to 22. Tom Forber or Leeds with 23. Danny Levi marking the end of the experienced squad.

Salary Cap (part 2)

 

The Super League salary cap is one of the most important mechanisms shaping modern rugby league in the UK. It’s designed to keep the competition financially stable, competitive, and attractive — and it has evolved quite a bit in recent years.

🏉 What the Salary Cap Actually Is:

The cap limits how much each Super League club can spend on its first‑team squad. According to the Rugby Football League, clubs must stay under the lower of two figures:

• A fixed cap of £2.1 million, and

• The amount the club can afford under financial sustainability rules.

Without Salford in the Super League, it is assumed everyone is working to a A fixed cap of £2.1 million.

🎯 Why the Cap Exists?

he RFL outlines three core goals:

• Keep the league competitive by preventing wealthier clubs from dominating.

• Stop clubs from overspending and risking financial collapse.

• Protect player welfare and ensure fair treatment.

⭐ Marquee Player Rules

This is where things get interesting. Super League allows clubs to sign “marquee players” whose salaries count only partially toward the cap. Recent rule changes expanded this system:

• Clubs can now have up to three marquee players (previously two).

• At least one must be federation‑trained.

• Their cap value depends on their status:

Player Type	Counts as on Cap
Club‑trained marquee	£50,000
Federation‑trained marquee	£100,000
Non‑federation marquee	£150,000

🧭 The Bigger Picture

The cap has been set at £2.1m for five consecutive years, but the marquee rules and monitoring processes continue to evolve. These tweaks aim to balance financial sustainability with the desire to raise the league’s overall quality.

The Salary Cap is based only on the top 30 highest-paid players in the squad

£25,000 is the minimum wage in the UK. 30x £25,000 = £750,000 (the least amount the whole team can be paid)

£2,100,000 /30 = £70,000 average wage if all players are paid the same.

Marquee players are decided on the basis of the biggest savings, not the biggest wage. An example would be if Toby King were paid £100k, as a Club‑trained marquee only costs £50k on the salary cap. To change to a Non‑federation marquee, that player would need to be paid over £200k for it to be worth changing the marquee player status

Marquee player status is generally not announced due to the English custom of not talking about salaries in polite circles. Football is an exception, and weekly wages are often quoted in papers for shock value. The NRL is much more vulgar; a quick search reveals Nathan Cleary is on Aus $1.3M. This discrepancy in the value of top NRL players and the top Super League players is why Super League teams will never see Mal Maninga or Jamie Lyons running out in their colours as we once did.

The reason why the Salary Cap has remained static is based on the fact that only two of the current 14 Super League teams posted a profit (Leigh and Bradford). The accounts posted at Companies House are bare minimum so it is difficult for the layperson to forensically assess the true incomings and outgoings, when directors can manipulate and write off loans when required. If 12 clubs are making a loss, it seems suicidal to want to extend the Salary Cap when it is the owners who will have to foot the bill. Wigan have a billionaire owner who can afford to finance the extra losses. Leeds have a consortium of owners, which is why they will pay transfer fees when needed, when, in general, they have ceased to exist for the most part in Rugby League. Hull FC and Hull KR have recently bolstered their ownership groups and can absorb the losses a little more easily. Eamonn McManus at St Helens stated that the club cannot sustain £2.5m-£3m losses every year, indefinitely (2023 & 2024). 

Most clubs are hoping that the TV deal will result in an uptick, when every contract negotiation has been a spiral down since Nigel Wood agreed the 2014-2021 Sky Sports contract worth around £28.5m, now down to around £20m a year. Sky Sports in fairness, are now showing 2 games a week and all games via a streaming service, which increases the production costs of Super League significantly. The expected result was that fewer people would attend live games, but in general, the trend has been for increased attendances all round and more people watching the extra games via the streaming service. With 14 teams comes an extra game a week, but more fans will want to watch Sky Sports now that their team is also in the competition. It is believed that Sky Sports viewing figures soar in the capital when the London Broncos are involved. 

Paul Lakin at Hull KR seems to want his cake and eat it. He argues for both a salary cap increase and for the Television Rights deal to pay for it. Hull KR as the current treble holders, have unprecedented demand and still in 2024 reported losses of £1,327,065.

As a fantasy version of the Salary Cap, I will attempt to work out where the Wigan cap goes.

Category A - £100k+

Category B - £75k to £100k

Category C - £50k to £75k

Vategory D - £25k to £50k

1. Jai Field - A (£300k - £150k M)
2. Zach Eckersley - C (£40k)
3. Adam Keighran - A (£100k)
4. Jake Wardle - A (£120k)
5. Liam Marshall - A (£100k)
6. Bevan French - A (£350k - £150k M)
7. Harry Smith - A (£120k - £50k M)
8. Ethan Havard - B (£75k)
9. Brad O'Neill - B (£75k)
10. Luke Thompson - A (£120k)
11. Junior Nsemba - A (£100k)
12. Liam Farrell - A (£110k)
13. Kaide Ellis - B (£100k)
14. Sam Walters - B (£75k)
15. Patrick Mago - B (£75k)
16. Abbas Miski - B (£75k)
17. Oliver Partington - A (£90k)
18. N/A
19. Jack Farrimond - C (£40k)
20. Sam Eseh - C (£40k)
21. Oliver Wilson - B (£75k)
22. Tom Forber - D (£35k)
23. Kian McDermott - D (£30k)
24. Harvey Makin - D (£30k)
25. Taylor Kerr - D (£30k)
26. Nathan Lowe - D (£30k)
27. Lukas Mason - D (£30k)
28. Noah Hodkinson - D (£30k)
29. Tiaki Chan - D (£40k)
30. George Hirst - D (£35k)
31. Jonny Vaughan - D (£35k)

Approx total = £2,085,000

* Deduct Owen Wilson (out for the season) £2,010,000

** to be added back in 2027, Kruise Leeming and Tyler Dupree

In theory, about £90K wiggle room, but if Wigan bring anyone in for 2026, then at least 2 will need to leave in 2027. 

Players coming through the academy get paid less than players who are bought in. Oliver Partington would have been a player who needed to leave in 2022, because his academy pathway would have meant that he was undervalued by Wigan. Returning in 2026, he will now be on a good salary and a 5-year contract.

Issues affecting salary will include games played, International honours, Super League demand and interest from the NRL.

Teams with strong academies include: Wigan, St Helens, and Leeds. These clubs tend to promote upwards and don't buy externally very often.This process keeps the Salary Cap tight but manageable.

Warrington are currently in the process of moving to this model, although they have players like King, Currie and Philbin that have been at the club for years.

Newly promoted teams tend to buy older, more experienced players (see York, Bradford and Leigh pre 2023). 

The new model for under-25-year-olds from NSW and QLD cup competitions is keeping the Salary Cap and the average age of the team down - this is the model being used by Wakefield, Leigh and Castleford

What on Earth is Going on at the Piedome

 

Breaking news 16/1/2026, just 4 weeks before the start of the new season. Wigan is in for a swap deal with Oliver Partington to return to the Piedome and Kruise Leeming to head to the South of France. Wigan Warriors and Catalans Dragons set for major transfer swap

As pointed out in the previous post Leopards are Massive: 2026 Super League Predictions. The Wigan squad seems light, with only 21 players with any real Super League experience. At Loose Forward, Kaide Ellis was ever present, playing 31 games in the 2025 season. Although there is no natural replacement, Ellis appears to be indestructible. Why do Wigan want Oliver Partington, a player they discarded during one of Wigan's annual pay squeezes? According to Matt Shaw the answer appears to be Tom Forber. Matt Peet wants to clear the pathway blocking Forber's progress, and at 22 years old, he has only managed 18 games for Wigan.

How will a re-jigged starting squad look after the transfer? It would be assumed that Forber takes Leeming's spot on the bench as a replacement dummy-half, Partington moves to Loose Forward, and Kaide Ellis could move to either Prop or Second Row. If Ellis is in the second row, the obvious move would be to put Farrell on the bench. Liam Farrell signed a contract extension until the end of 2027, which makes it appear a bad choice for Wigan, paying top money for a bench replacement. Farrell has been creaking a little recently and at 35 years old, there is a question mark over how many games he plays in the next two years of his contract, before the inevitable move to the coaching team.

In my opinion, Kruise Leeming is a far more dangerous player than both Tom Forber and Brad O'Neill, but the Wigan way is always that defence comes first. Partington always tops the tackle charts, so Wigan may become a fortress, but with far fewer options in attack. Bevan French traditionally pulls a hamstring at some point in the season, and Wigan will suddenly look a little more toothless in attack without Leeming.

As for Catalans, I think this is a quality exchange, as they are light in the dummy-half position since Micky McIlorum moved to Hull KR. This will allow Ben Garcia to return to his natural position of Loose Forward.